![]() ![]() THE BLACK SWAN (2007, 2010), on how high-impact but rare events dominate history, how we retrospectively give ourselves the illusion of understanding them thanks to narratives, how they are impossible to estimate scientifically, how this makes some areas-but not others-totally unpredictable and unforecastable, how confirmatory methods of knowledge don’t work, and how thanks to Black Swan–blind “faux experts” we are prone to building systems increasingly fragile to extreme events. “On the Super-Additivity and Estimation Biases of Quantile Contributions.”įOOLED BY RANDOMNESS (2001, 2004), on how we tend to mistake luck for skills, how randomness does not look random, why there is no point talking about performance when it is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg, and the profound difference between dentists and speculators. ![]() “On the Shadow Moments of Apparently Infinite-Mean Phenomena,” arXiv preprint arXiv:1510.06731. “ Black Swans and the Domains of Statistics.” The American Statistician 61(3): 198–200. “Principal and Agent.” In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, vol. “Leadership Ethics and Asymmetry.” In Leadership and Ethics, ed. Sandis, Constantine, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2015. Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily LifeĬapital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Taleb and Douady (2012) applies it to all forms of local nonlinearities.Įmpirical record of bigger: Mergers and hubris hypothesis: in Roll (1986) since then Cartwright and Schoenberg (2006). While Jensen deals with monotone functions, Van Zwet deals with concave-convex and other mixtures-but these remain simple nonlinearities. Numbers redone recently in The Economist, “Counting the Cost of Calamities,” Jan. The age of increasing fragility: Zajdenwebber, see the discussion in The Black Swan. It looks like what we interpret as political systems might come from size. 2011.Īnecdotal knowledge and power of evidence: A reader, Karl Schluze, wrote: “An old teacher and colleague told me (between his sips of bourbon) ‘If you cut off the head of a dog and it barks, you don’t have to repeat the experiment.’ ” Easy to get examples: no lawyer would invoke an “N=1” argument in defense of a person, saying “he only killed once” nobody considers a plane crash as “anecdotal.” Nuclear, new risk management: Private communication, Atlanta, INPO, Nov. Few other philosophers go back to the real problem of probability.įourth Quadrant: See the discussion in The Black Swan or paper Taleb (1999). N., 2009, “Errors, Robustness, and the Fourth Quadrant.”Īnd the notion that science equals measurement free of error-it is, largely but not in everything-can lead us to all manner of fictions, delusions, and dreams.Īn excellent understanding of probability linked to skepticism: Franklin (2001). N., 2008, “Infinite Variance and the Problems of Practice.” Complexity 14(2). Spitznagel, 2009, “The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management,” Harvard Business Review (October). Tapiero, 2010, “The Risk Externalities of Too Big to Fail.” Physica A: Statistical Physics and Applications. Pilpel, 2007, “Epistemology and Risk Management.” Risk and Regulation 13, Summer. Blyth, 2011, “The Black Swan of Cairo.” Foreign Affairs 90(3). Quantitative trading / quantitative finance, But WeChat and Alipay are also potential competitors to the digital yuan's own app.Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder In China, WeChat and Alipay, which is run by Alibaba affiliate Ant Group, dominate mobile payments last year, Alipay also began trialing digital yuan payments. Previously, users could get the app on an invite-only basis. That will enable anyone in those areas to download and sign up to use the digital currency. This week, the PBOC launched an e-CNY app for users in certain regions and cities in China. To date, the People's Bank of China, which issues the digital yuan or e-CNY, has done limited trials in certain cities via lotteries where the central bank has handed out small amounts of the currency to some citizens.īut there are now signs that the PBOC is looking to expand usage of the digital yuan, despite no concrete date for a nationwide rollout. WeChat Pay has over 800 million monthly active users. It can also be used for purchases online. WeChat Pay allows users to show merchants a barcode on their phone to pay for items in store. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit ![]()
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